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Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
(8 months)
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Forecast on questions generated by participants of Good Judgment's public and private Superforecasting Workshops. For more information about workshops, please see:
Superforecasting Workshops
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Question
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will Chad join the Alliance of Sahel States ("L'Alliance des États du Sahel" in French, or AES) before 1 October 2024?
Closing
Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
·
17
·
20
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Between 1 March 2024 and 30 June 2024, how many total fatalities will occur in Sudan due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?
Closing
Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
·
19
·
52
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Before 1 October 2024, will the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) report a situation or projection that any part of the population of Sudan has or will reach "Phase 5 - Famine" of acute food insecurity?
Closing
Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
·
24
·
57
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will Poland publicly announce that it has joined or is joining the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) before 9 November 2024?
Closing
Nov 09, 2024 08:01AM UTC
·
28
·
81
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (Forces) of Iran and those of Pakistan resulting in two or more fatalities before 1 January 2025?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
·
65
·
134
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Before 1 August 2024, will the United States publicly announce that it has deployed regular ground armed forces to Yemen for the stated purpose of fighting Houthi forces?
Closing
Aug 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
·
93
·
243
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2025?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
·
93
·
246
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Before 1 July 2024, will NATO or a NATO member state publicly accuse Russia of attacking a crewed, non-Ukrainian-flagged vessel in the Black Sea outside of Ukrainian and Russian territorial waters?
Closing
Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
·
114
·
409
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
When will NATO and/or a NATO member state publicly accuse Republic of Serbia national military forces and/or law enforcement of either entering Kosovo without authorization or firing a weapon or weapons into Kosovo?
Closing
Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
·
67
·
244
Private
Superforecasting Workshop
asks:
Will France publicly announce that it will resume providing official development assistance (ODA) to Mali before 1 January 2025?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
·
39
·
107
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